Keppel – QLD 2020

I was in Keppel for a few weeks in July and One Nation and Libs has Billboards and Corlutes up early. The closure of two local newspapers Rocky Morning Bulletin and Capricorn News makes it difficult for candidates to make themselves known. There remains a small local A4 monthly News magazine bit this doe not have a huge circulation. Morning bulletin still available on line but locals I spoke to were not happy.
I do not see much chance of change.
Vince Lester was without shadow of doubt the best country politician I saw operating. He was my local MLA in Peak Downs for 7 years. His commitment to community meant everyone knew him and he knew everyone and everyone knew him. He carried this on into his new seat of Keppell. My prediction no change unless a big swing against Palaszczuk which I do not think will happen.

Keppel is in my too close to call category. I know we don’t like looking at corresponding results Federally, but the LNP did exceptionally well in the booths that make up Keppel in Capricornia.

I think Lauga has somewhat of a personal vote but has had her fair share of gaffes. The One Nation vote will be roughly the same, the question will be whether the LNP falls into second on primaries, or if One Nation holds on. If One Nation finishes third, I can see a path to victory for the LNP.

I had this originally as an ALP retain but have moved it to the Toss-up category, with expecting ALP vote going down in the regions but depends on ONP or LNP coming second that really could push this one. However, agree that I think Lauga has done enough despite as @PRP mentions her gaffes. I’ll see how more of the campaign folds before changing a call.

Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – Lean ALP

Terrible poll for Labor in the CQ papers today. Horrific almost, Lauga’s support has plummeted. I originally though Labor may hold here by my September prediction now is: PHON gain. Rothery is a recognised candidate.

I’ve flipped on this one, I now have the LNP winning, but it will come right down to the wire. I think the swing in the regions will be to the LNP – particularly in the greater Rockhampton/Mackay region.

I can’t see Labor withstanding the LNP/PHON vote here.

was was the federal vote in this seat? seems the pattern without Mr lester was a labor inclined marginal…… seat based polls seem to be inaccurate.

Am local, think ALP will retain as Lauga is largely seen as effective. Same with Michelle Landry at the federal level – effective member so plenty of people I know voted LNP at federal, ALP at state. Rockhampton is one of those areas that has had basically no coronavirus cases and the border closure is popular here. I’ve not seen Yeppoon and Great Keppel Island as busy as they are since the resorts were in their heyday – my business sales for the sept school holidays were up 20% year on year. The area is really benefiting from intraQueensland tourists that would otherwise go interstate or overseas so the federal LNP constantly criticising the border situation might hurt them.

One Nation is going ham on advertisements though.

Decided to have a look at the betting pools (via Ladbrokes), to see which seats are currently looking like changing according to the punters. This is one of the ones with a party other than the incumbent ahead in betting pools (the below show just the most notable parties for the seat)…

LNP – 1.8
Labor – 2.1
ONP – 4.0

Both Sportsbet and Ladbrokes have LNP ahead here ($1.65 LNP to $2.35 ALP and $1.80 LNP to $2.10 ALP). Labor currently holds on a small margin. It wouldn’t take much for Labor to lose this one. Meanwhile One Nation is behind ($4.00 and $8.00). A couple of the local newspapers there are calling it close and important for the LNP if their campaign is slowing in places like Mundingburra and Thuringowa.

Brisbane Times reported that:
“The LNP campaign was expected to zero in on central Queensland electorates Keppel, Mirani, Maryborough and the Townsville-based Mundingburra. Internal party polling revealed Keppel was within the grasp of the LNP, sources with knowledge of the campaign said. It was a two-way race between Labor and One Nation at the 2017 election but One Nation’s significance has been shrinking during this campaign. One Nation has dropped from 13.7 per cent of the primary vote at the 2017 election down to 9 per cent, the Newspoll found”.

Capricorn Coast seats like Whitsunday, Mirani and Keppel are likely to play and important role and LNP’s job to form government becomes much harder if they can’t win at least 2 of these. Poll found GKI infrastructure and development that hot button issues followed by law and order and reducing youth crime.

Final Prediction: Labor loss but I’m torn on who picks it up, I originally though PHON but their numbers don’t seem to be strong enough, their prefs though could very well swing it to the LNP.

Prediction: Too Close to Call – Lean LNP. I think ON will drop into 3rd place with preferences helping LNP get over the line.

Labor retain, I just don’t see the One Nation preference flow being enough to get the LNP up. Too much leakage from the split ticket.

Hey there armchair experts.I’m a newbie poll-watcher fromOz’s far south watching qld over the weekend. Am now interested in preferences. For example I was watching Keppel as I have rels there (and fascinated to see if ONP got in).Right now on the QEC the preferences are:

DOCKERY, Jimmy
Legalise Cannabis Qld (Party)
526 2.52%
SMELTZ, Nikki
Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party
113 0.54%
ROTHERY, Wade
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Queensland Division
3444 16.53%
GANFIELD, Paula
Informed Medical Options Party (IMOP)
326 1.56%
MULLBRICK, Clancy
Queensland Greens
900 4.32%

For those in the know/locals where will the preferences for each of these candidates/parties likely go? For example is it straight down (whatever) party deals…or is there last minute brawling/accusations/horsetrading involved?

Love to hear any info..seems like many of you know plenty:-)

Listening to Ashby on Saturday blaming lack of a Rockhampton Local Newspaper for the appalling performance of Ashby-Hanson party at election. There are about 30000 voters in each state electorate with about 2.5 voters per house. So what Ashby was saying was that assuming he has 20 members in Keppel they were too lazy to distribute 600 pamphlets each. This is about two streets per member but blame Murdoch for not distributing his propaganda for him.
I have been fairly complimentary about PHON campaigning in Keppel but clearly they are like Palmer totally dependent upon the few to do more damage in course of human events to so many in so short a time. They certainly do not have the capability to fight their enemy on the beaches and the only hedgerow they will defend is their wooly brains. The landing grounds are for a light plane that no one knows who owns.
Sorry Winston for the crypto-plagiarism.